2011 eatery Business Outlook
by: John A. Gordon
www.pacificmanagementconsultinggroup.com
The big translate economic outlook is mixed. Restaurant sales overall match strongly to unemployment, but yet some places are busy. The center of unemployment and underemployment has held steady, after an emolument in spring/early pass 2010. Many feel that US unemployment will only soft fall in 2011/2012 and 2013. California trends will continue worsened than the US as a whole, as manufacturing and construction make water not recovered here. Interior California locations continue to be hard-hit.
The concept of frugality fatigue was noted again as a major theme, and thus hope for future sell sales and earnings. We saw some example of this earlier this year. Restaurants had a good September and October.
The most important polls, the latest essential same pedigree sales results continue to be more(prenominal) irrefutable than in 2009 but still mixed by brand.
Among the majors, there is certainly some(prenominal) sequential and positive improvement in upper end /fine dining operators (Ruth Chris , Mortons both positive, but Chilis remains negative; four of six Darden brands were positive (but not Red Lobster)
Among the QSRs, McDonalds continues strong, Wendys was slightly negative, Arbys negative, Carls negative (but little so), Hardees positive. Jack in the Box (JACK) was less negative. The fast casual powerhouses Chipotle and Panera were well positive.
The National Restaurant Associations Restaurant Performance Index (operators survey) reported higher same store sales for the first time since August 2007, and the highest since 2007. That is not to enjoin average sales/restaurant are back to 2007 levels. The mogul has improved, and has two components current situation index (sales, traffic, labor and CAPEX) and a expectations index. Keep in mind restaurant independents are stand for in this sample.
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